GEOFF BENNETT: Let's turn now to how President Trump's tariff policies are shaping key races for control of Congress this fall.

For that, we turn to our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins.

Lisa, it's always great to see you.

So let's start with a state that we just touched on, Michigan.

It's a key battleground.

Help us understand why.

LISA DESJARDINS: Wolverine State has some big paws and has important races in both the House and the Senate.

Let's start with the House, though.

There, you see four House races that are critical to control of the House.

And there you see in yellow the Canadian border.

So one of those House races even borders Canada.

Now, the state also has a key Senate race between Republican there, Mike Rogers, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

Just two weeks ago, Mike Rogers came out with a key ad campaign in which he said, I will fight for manufacturing in this state.

But President Trump's record on manufacturing has not been as great as he would like.

In fact, let's take a look at where things stand there in Michigan.

After Trump had his liberation day last year announcing global tariffs, Michigan has lost 8,300 manufacturing jobs on net.

The state is facing the third largest tariff cost of any state, and that's about 15 billion in tariffs for the auto industry alone.

This is a situation where Republicans are actually very happy with the candidates they have in this state.

They have known how important it is, but the economic effects cannot be ignored anymore, and voters are really catching on.

One Republican national campaign source I have said they think Michigan is the state where tariffs could impact the election the most.

GEOFF BENNETT: And there's another state in the crosshairs of Canadian tariffs, and that's Pennsylvania.

Take us there.

LISA DESJARDINS: Right.

This is fascinating.

There are several important races in the House in Pennsylvania, but there's one in particular I want us to look at that's center stage, and it's because of the tariffs specifically Canada put in place against motorcycles.

This is Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District on the southern border of Pennsylvania, and there in York County sits the Harley-Davidson assembly plant.

Canada has just announced today 50 percent tariffs on American-made motorcycles, most of them like Harley-Davidsons, that on assembly plant in York County.

Harley-Davidson earlier this summer said they were going to try and expand it.

They had had layoffs, but they were recovering.

And, as is obvious, that's not what any business wants is a big freeze before you're expanding.

This is a problem for one member of Congress.

That's Scott Perry, who represents the 10th Congressional District.

He is in a very close race to try and keep his seat.

This does not help him.

He did put out a statement saying that he thinks that these tariffs are disappointing, that they're detrimental, but the fact is, it does make him more vulnerable.

We reached out to Harley-Davidson, and they said just in a sentence they will decline to comment.

GEOFF BENNETT: There's also a potential impact on a Senate race that many saw as a long shot for Democrats, but it's getting fresh attention.

What's up with that?

LISA DESJARDINS: Right.

All politics is local.

We're talking about Kansas.

This is a long shot race for Democrats, but it's getting more within reach when we talk about the U.S.

Senate.

President Trump yesterday put out on TRUTH Social a statement about a jet company in Canada called Bombardier.

He wrote: "No more selling Bombardier in the United States."

Now, that is a Canadian company, it's true, but their U.S.

headquarters are in Wichita, Kansas, where they employ some 1,200 Americans.

That is a problem in the Senate race potentially for Republicans.

There's Roger Marshall, who is the incumbent senator, facing Democratic Pastor Adam Hamilton.

Marshall really shouldn't be vulnerable.

He's a longtime incumbent that's well-known.

However, he is increasingly so.

And he's seeing headlines in newspapers and on TV stations around the state like this one connecting Trump to job losses.

Marshall has put out a statement today saying that he has reached out to Trump and he's trying to fight for jobs.

GEOFF BENNETT: And big picture, what is the overall effect of President Trump's trade policies on these key midterm races?

LISA DESJARDINS: We focused on a few, but let's look at the states in play, Republican seats in the Senate.

There's a number of them.

You see Alaska and Maine, big-time trading with Canada.

Same with Texas.

There's also issues for farmers over his tariff policies with beef.

Overall, what we're seeing right now is the winds continue to blow in Democratic directions, and some Republicans think Trump is helping them right now with tariff policy.

GEOFF BENNETT: Lisa Desjardins, thanks, as always, for that reporting.

LISA DESJARDINS: You're welcome.